UK Weather Forecast Snow: Met Office Issues First Winter Outlook
Britons may be in for a milder downtime than usual, according to the Met Office’s first three-month outlook for the season.
Foretellers have prognosticated that from October through December, temperatures are most likely to hang around average or slightly warmer than normal.
The agency has calculated a 55 per cent chance of a “near average” winter. That’s 0.9 times the normal probability. Meanwhile, there’s a 30 per cent chance of a “mild” season, which is 1.5 times higher than usual.
Only 15 per cent of the outlook points to a “cold” winter, slightly below the standard probability.
“Consistent with our warming climate, there is an increase in the likelihood of mild conditions through the three months overall,” the outlook states.
The Met Office warns, however, that bursts of cold weather could still occur. “However, with an increased chance of northwesterly or northerly outbreaks, there is a greater chance of spells of colder weather, with winter hazards more likely than usual, later in the period.”
Rainfall is expected to be mostly average. There is a 70 per cent probability of “near average” precipitation, a 20 per cent chance it will be dry, and 10 per cent for a wetter-than-normal season.
“The chances of a wet three-month period are less than normal,” the Met Office said. “However, the chance of a dry three-month period is around normal, due to an increased likelihood of high-pressure patterns influencing the south of the UK.
Nevertheless, regional variations in rainfall are to be expected.”
Northern and northwestern upland areas may see most of the rain due to “northwesterly weather patterns and lower-than-normal pressure to the north,” the outlook notes. Meanwhile, eastern and southern regions are expected to enjoy drier spells.
Wind conditions are forecast to be mostly average, with a 65 per cent probability. There is a 20 per cent chance of “windy” conditions and 15 per cent of calmer-than-normal periods.
“Through these 3 months, these show an increased chance of higher-than-normal pressure across or near the south or southwest of the UK and lower-than-normal pressure to the north of the UK.
This favors a greater-than-usual frequency of northwesterly winds,” the outlook adds.
The Met Office’s seasonal prognostications are grounded on anticipated global meteorological patterns, noting where conditions might differ from the norm.
This downtime, while snow may be limited in most corridors of the UK, northerly outbreaks could bring occasional wintry hazards to highland areas.
