Tesla Share Price Climbs Ahead of Q3 Deliveries Amid EV Credit Rush
Tesla’s stock extended its winning streak on Wednesday, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains as investors eagerly await the company’s third-quarter delivery results, due Thursday. Analysts expect the figures to highlight Tesla’s strongest performance of the year.
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said on X, “Tomorrow’s good delivery number will mostly be dismissed as one-time,” adding that “focus shifts immediately to 2026 delivery growth commentary on the Oct 22 call.”
Munster projected a 5% increase in Q3 deliveries but highlighted that much of this growth stemmed from customers pulling forward purchases ahead of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expiry.
The relentless call buying in $TSLA tells me that tomorrow’s delivery number will be well short of 489k in the @Kalshi market pic.twitter.com/C18A7StZvR
— Consensus Media (@ConsensusGurus) October 1, 2025
Without this surge, deliveries would have dropped by roughly 5%. He noted that Tesla’s 2026 delivery growth is likely to be around 10%.
Instead of the 17% Wall Street currently projects, and depends heavily on the rollout of its lower-cost model early next year, which won’t significantly impact volumes until late 2026.
Meanwhile, delivery tracker Troy Teslike estimated Q3 deliveries at 481,000 vehicles, surpassing Tesla’s internal analyst consensus of 443,079 and exceeding last year’s 462,890 units.
His forecast drew on DMV registration records, insurance data, and shipping information, with a historical forecast error averaging around 3.6%.
While Tesla’s Q3 spike was driven by last-minute U.S. buyers rushing to beat the tax credit deadline, General Motors (GM) and Ford also posted strong EV results.
GM’s sales rose 8%, thanks to a doubling of EV deliveries to over 66,000 vehicles, including over 25,000 Chevrolet Equinox EVs.
Cadillac EV volumes increased by 25%, though most growth was incentive-driven, while internal combustion vehicle sales climbed only 3%.
Ford reported an 8.2% increase in U.S. sales, buoyed by both EV and SUV demand. Record EV deliveries of 30,612 vehicles marked a 30% year-over-year rise.
Its Bronco SUV sales jumped 41%, the redesigned Expedition surged 47%, and F-Series pickups rose 4.7%.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains ‘bullish’ for Tesla, with GM and Ford also seeing high activity and positive sentiment.
Year-to-date, Tesla shares have risen 14%, GM is up 16%, and Ford has climbed 32%.
