The GBP/USD pair ended last week on a strong note, rallying to a fresh 2025 high of 1.3252. It climbed steadily from around 1.3100, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains, driven by a softer US dollar and improving sentiment around the UK trade economy.
This bullish move was supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and stronger-than-expected UK labour market data, which helped push the pound through key resistance levels at 1.3165 and 1.3200.
Now, heading into the new week (April 21–25, 2025), the focus shifts to high-impact economic data, including the UK CPI report and the US Advance GDP release — both of which could bring sharp movements to the pair.
With GBP/USD now trading near multi-month highs, traders are eyeing whether the momentum will extend above 1.3300 or if a pullback towards the 1.3120–1.3050 support area is on the cards.
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Quick Summary on GBP/USD Weekly Forecast
- Trend Bias: Bullish
- Key Resistance Levels: 1.3290, 1.3350, 1.3433
- Key Support Levels: 1.3205, 1.3125, 1.2980
- Short-Term Outlook: Potential pullback before bullish continuation
- Long-Term Outlook: Uptrend intact, targets above 1.3430
- Major Events to Watch:
- UK CPI – April 24
- US GDP – April 25
- Potential Scenarios:
- Break above 1.3290 → Targets 1.3350/1.3433
- Drop below 1.3205 → Eyes 1.3125/1.2980
GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
As GBP/USD approaches the upper end of its recent trading range, price action is now testing a key resistance area around 1.3290 — a level that previously capped bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout above this could pave the way toward 1.3350, with 1.3433 emerging as the next significant upside target should bullish sentiment persist.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3205, a level that may offer near-term stability if a corrective move unfolds. Below that, 1.3125 stands as a critical zone to watch, having acted as a launchpad during last week’s advance. A break beneath this could expose the pair to deeper losses toward 1.2980, where longer-term buyers may look to re-enter.
Support & Resistance Levels (Key Zones)
| Timeframe | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| 1-Hour | 1.3125, 1.3205 | 1.3290, 1.3350 |
| 4-Hour | 1.2981, 1.3125 | 1.3290, 1.3433 |
| Daily | 1.2706, 1.2981 | 1.3433, 1.3500 |
Most active trading zones: 1.3125–1.3350
Trend Analysis
The broader trend for GBP/USD remains firmly bullish, supported by a sustained series of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Price action continues to trade above key moving averages, reinforcing positive momentum.
However, short-term indicators suggest the rally may be overextended, with consolidation or a minor pullback likely before the next leg higher. Traders should watch for confirmation signals around support levels to gauge trend continuation.
Short-Term Trend (1H–4H):
- The pair appears overextended, with the RSI nearing overbought territory.
- Price action on the 1-hour chart shows early signs of consolidation near 1.3250.
- Expected move: Mild correction to 1.3200–1.3125, followed by a bounce.
Long-Term Trend (Daily):
- The long-term structure remains bullish, supported by:
- A consistent series of higher highs and higher lows
- The 200-day EMA is trending upwards
- A break above 1.3300 could pave the way toward the next major resistance at 1.3433
Multi-Timeframe Trend Overview
Across multiple timeframes, GBP/USD maintains a broadly bullish structure, though momentum varies. The 1-hour chart shows early signs of consolidation following last week’s rally, while the 4-hour chart suggests a potential pause or retracement.
On the daily timeframe, the uptrend remains intact, with price action holding firmly above key moving averages, indicating that any pullbacks may offer buying opportunities within the broader bullish context.
| Timeframe | Trend Direction | Technical Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1H | Slightly Bullish | Short-term pullback likely |
| 4H | Neutral / Weak Bullish | May break trendline if data disappoints |
| Daily | Strong Bullish | Higher highs remain intact |
Key Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week (April 21–25)
This week’s GBP/USD price action will be heavily influenced by a series of high-impact data releases. The spotlight is on the UK CPI inflation report (April 24), which could shape Bank of England rate expectations, while the US Q1 GDP release (April 25) will be key in gauging dollar strength.
Together, these events are likely to drive short-term volatility and directional bias for the pair. According to the Forex Factory Economic Calendar, here are key events that could influence GBP/USD:
UK:
- 24 April – CPI Inflation Data:
Forecast: 3.1% YoY (Prev: 3.4%)
A lower-than-expected figure may pressure GBP, increasing rate cut expectations.
US:
- 25 April – Advance GDP (Q1):
Forecast: 2.0% QoQ (Prev: 3.2%)
A strong reading may support the USD, capping GBP/USD gains. - Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Sentiment Reports are also due, potentially fuelling USD volatility.
Potential Price Action Scenarios
GBP/USD may extend its bullish run if price breaks above 1.3290, targeting 1.3350 and potentially 1.3433. Conversely, failure to hold above 1.3205 could trigger a corrective move toward 1.3125 or deeper support at 1.2980.
Bullish Scenario:
- Break above 1.3290 with strong UK CPI or weak US GDP → Target: 1.3350, then 1.3433
- RSI cooling off may reignite buying pressure
Bearish Scenario:
- Soft UK CPI or strong US data leads to a breakdown below 1.3125
- Next downside targets: 1.3050, 1.2981
Outlook Summary
GBP/USD retains a bullish bias heading into the week, supported by strong technical structure and favourable market sentiment. However, upcoming data releases could introduce volatility, making support levels critical for sustaining upward momentum.
| Outlook Type | Direction | Target Area |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (1–2 Days) | Mild Bearish | 1.3200 – 1.3125 |
| Mid-Term (3–5 Days) | Bullish Bias | 1.3350 – 1.3433 |
| Long-Term | Bullish | 1.3500 and beyond |
Note: Expect volatility midweek due to back-to-back high-impact events. Patience and strategic entries around key support zones are advised.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice; traders should conduct their own research before making decisions.
