Climate Threat Looms Over UK’s Fresh Food Supply Chain, Warn Experts
A stark warning has emerged today for Britain’s fresh produce sector: climate threat is no longer distant—it’s knocking on the door.
A new report released by sustainability experts Aethr Associates, in partnership with the Fresh Produce Consortium, delivers a sobering forecast.
Without urgent action, the UK could face major disruptions to its fruit and vegetable supplies by 2050, driven by extreme weather patterns and water scarcity across key supplier nations.
Right now, the UK leans heavily on global imports, 47% of its vegetables and a striking 84% of its fruit are shipped in from overseas. That dependence? It’s a growing vulnerability.
In 2023, the planet recorded its hottest year ever. Just months later, on 22 July 2024, Earth endured its hottest single day to date. These aren’t anomalies. They’re warnings. And they’re hitting where it hurts—food supply chains.
The report zeroes in on the UK’s ten most critical source countries for fruit and veg. Together, they account for 64% of total imports. Yet climate models project that these countries will see a 16% average rise in temperatures by 2050.
Spain, the biggest contributor, is expected to double its annual number of ‘hot days’—from 9 to 20. Peru? Even worse. A staggering 1000% increase, from one to eleven scorching days each year.
Worse still, 72% of fresh produce from these top regions will be grown under extreme water stress by mid-century. That’s not just bad for crops. It’s a recipe for failed harvests and price spikes.
“The growing reliance on fresh food imports from regions with limited water resources will lead to more empty shelves and rising food prices, as we’ve already seen in recent years,” said Richard Bonn, Co-Founder of Aethr Associates.
“Climate projections over the next 25 years must be taken seriously. Importers need to ensure current crop production methods can withstand the climate of 2050.”
The UK’s £10 billion annual spend on imported fruit and veg has been rising steadily, mirroring consumer appetite for tropical produce like mangoes, pineapples, and avocados. But here’s the kicker: in the past five years, nearly half of that spending has gone to countries already battling severe water shortages.
This, the report says, is unsustainable. Kelly Shields, Technical Director at the Fresh Produce Consortium, didn’t mince words. “This sector is highly adaptable, but it must first understand the scale of the challenge. This report brings the data together to both define the threat and highlight solutions.”
Those solutions include modernising farming techniques, investing in drought-resistant crops, building better water storage systems, and improving flood management. But it’s not just a job for importers and growers.
Government needs to step in. To secure future food stability, businesses and policymakers must treat climate risk as a central issue—not a side concern.
The report calls for industry-wide standards to help assess and manage vulnerabilities across the supply chain.
This isn’t just a supply issue. It’s a national concern. If the UK fails to act, consumers could see emptier shelves, higher prices, and a shaken food system by 2050. The message? The climate threat is real—and it’s time to face it
