Gold ended last week with a mild correction, closing near $3,390 per ounce. Despite the pullback, the market remains firmly within an upward trend, supported by a broader triangle consolidation pattern on the charts.
Price action over the past few days suggests that buyers still have the upper hand, although a temporary bearish move towards the $3,275 support zone cannot be ruled out before any renewed climb higher.
This area has repeatedly attracted buying interest and is seen as a crucial level for sustaining the current bullish outlook.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook for 11 August
Key Pivot & Structural Levels
| Category | Level (USD/oz) |
|---|---|
| Strong Support | $3,275 |
| Weak Support | $3,365 |
| Pivot Level | $3,390 |
| Weak Resistance | $3,409 |
| Strong Resistance | $3,439 |
The market is currently sitting just above its pivot zone at $3,390. This level will be closely watched for early intraday direction.
The strong resistance area near $3,439 represents the top of the recent triangle pattern. A break above here could unlock fresh highs. On the downside, $3,275 remains the make-or-break support, while $3,365 could act as an initial defence against deeper pullbacks.
For a broader perspective on the week ahead, including longer-term support and resistance zones, you can read our XAU/USD Weekly Forecast for 11–15 August 2025.
Moving Averages Context
Price remains above its 20-day exponential moving average (around $3,350), which signals near-term bullish momentum.
More importantly, gold continues to trade above its 50-day moving average, reinforcing the underlying upward bias. The 200-day moving average remains well below current prices, showing that the broader trend is still strongly bullish.
Multiple Time-Frame View
- 15-Minute / 1-Hour: The short-term structure is consolidating, with immediate support between $3,380–3,385. If this zone holds, quick bullish reactions could follow.
- 4-Hour: An ascending triangle formation is visible. A confirmed breakout above $3,409 would likely push prices towards $3,439 and beyond.
- Daily: The daily chart shows a clear consolidation within a larger bullish trend. Failure to stay above $3,275 could trigger a sharper pullback.
- Weekly: The bullish channel is intact. A decisive break of $3,439 could send prices towards the $3,500 psychological barrier, with the potential for higher levels if momentum continues.
Entry Ideas Based on Price Action
Traders focusing purely on price action may consider:
- Buy on Dip: Look for long entries between $3,275–3,300, placing protective stops just below $3,265.
- Breakout Long: Enter above $3,409–3,439 for potential moves towards $3,500 and possibly $3,620.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below $3,275 could open the way for deeper declines towards the $3,200–3,120 range.
Market Drivers to Watch
Several external factors could influence gold’s movement today:
- Central Bank Policy: Expectations of a potential U.S. interest rate cut in September are keeping gold supported as a non-yielding asset.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing trade disputes and global political risks may provide safe-haven demand for gold.
- Investor Sentiment: Many analysts forecast gold could average around $3,200–3,300 for the year, with the possibility of testing highs near $3,700 by year-end if bullish momentum persists.
What to Watch on 11 August
The technical picture remains bullish, backed by strong support levels and the prevailing uptrend. The key areas to monitor are:
- Support Zone: $3,275–3,300 — prime buy-on-dip territory.
- Resistance Zone: $3,409–3,439 — a breakout here could lead to $3,500+.
- Overall Bias: Bullish, provided price holds above $3,275.
Traders are likely to see the best opportunities in either dip-buying near major supports or joining confirmed breakouts above resistance. As always, keeping a close eye on intraday price behaviour will be essential for timing entries.
