In a welcome twist for Britain’s high streets, retail sales have surged at their fastest pace in nearly four years, thanks in part to a bout of spring sunshine.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that between January and March, sales volumes climbed by 1.6% compared to the previous quarter—the most significant quarterly rise since July 2021.
The retail boost was led by a sharp rise in March, when sales volumes jumped 0.4%, defying forecasts of a decline. Analysts had predicted a 0.4% fall, but consumers hit the shops instead.
- Clothing and footwear shops posted a 3.7% monthly rise
- Garden centres enjoyed “robust trading” thanks to the mild weather
- DIY stores also saw increased footfall
- Non-food stores saw a 1.7% lift in sales
The sunshine may have tempted shoppers out, but not everyone benefited. Food sales, particularly in supermarkets, dropped by 1.3% during the same period.
“March was a real sweet spot for many households with inflation continuing to cool and wage increases not yet ravaged by an increase in bills,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.
“For retailers, these figures will be heartening, coming after what was a disappointing Christmas for the sector. But most will be braced for a change in fortunes.”
While March was full of promise, April has brought a more cautious outlook. A separate survey by market research firm GfK revealed a sharp fall in consumer confidence this month, dropping to its lowest level since November 2023.
“Consumers have not only been grappling with multiple April cost increases in the form of utilities, council tax, stamp duty, and road tax, but they are also hearing dire warnings of renewed high inflation on the back of the Trump tariffs,” explained Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK.
However, not all analysts are convinced the drop in confidence is long-lasting. Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, said the timing of GfK’s survey may have skewed results.
“The question being asked is whether that was a particularly unfortunate timing and it’s not necessarily reflective of how consumers will feel later in the year,” he said on BBC’s Today programme.
“Later in the year, we’re expecting interest rate cuts and a fall in energy costs. Will that start to boost consumer sentiment? I suspect it will.”
The retail sector is enjoying a much-needed lift, driven by improving weather and temporarily eased financial pressure.
However, the mixed signals from consumer confidence surveys are a reminder that this recovery could be fragile. Retailers will be hoping that better economic conditions later in the year will turn a seasonal spike into sustained growth.
