Shares in Swiss sneaker maker On Holding dropped more than 11% in premarket trading after the company reported record sales for 2025 but issued guidance that fell short of market expectations.
The Zurich-based premium sportswear brand announced on Tuesday that full-year sales surpassed 3 billion Swiss francs for the first time in 2025.
However, investors reacted sharply after the company forecast 2026 revenue below analyst estimates. The sell-off highlights growing concerns over whether rapid growth in the premium trainer market can continue at the same pace.
For UK investors and consumers, the move signals potential volatility in the premium sportswear sector, a market where pricing power and brand positioning matter more than ever.
Why did the Swiss sneaker maker’s shares fall after record sales?
Despite impressive headline figures, the issue lies in future expectations. On said it expects 2026 net sales to grow by at least 23% in constant currencies.
At current exchange rates, that would translate to at least 3.44 billion Swiss francs. However, sell-side analysts had forecast revenue closer to 3.7 billion francs.
In simple terms, the company is still growing fast, just not as fast as investors hoped.
Markets tend to price in high expectations for fast-growing brands. When forecasts come in even slightly lower than consensus, share prices often react quickly.
How strong were On’s 2025 financial results?
The numbers themselves were robust.
- Full-year sales (2025): Over 3 billion Swiss francs
- Fourth-quarter sales: 743.8 million Swiss francs
- Quarterly growth: Up 30.6% in constant currencies
- Adjusted EBITDA (Q4): 131 million Swiss francs
- EBITDA margin (Q4): 18.8%
Analysts had expected fourth-quarter sales of 723.5 million francs and EBITDA of 112.4 million francs, meaning the company beat expectations on profitability.
2025 Performance Snapshot
| Metric | Reported | Market Expectation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Year Sales | > 3bn CHF | 2.99bn CHF | Beat |
| Q4 Sales | 743.8m CHF | 723.5m CHF | Beat |
| Q4 EBITDA | 131m CHF | 112.4m CHF | Beat |
| 2026 Sales Outlook | ≥ 3.44bn CHF | ~3.7bn CHF | Miss |
The brand also confirmed it is in the final year of its strategy to double sales to 3.55 billion francs by 2026, with a target EBITDA margin of at least 18%. It now expects margins between 18.5% and 19%.
Where is growth coming from?
Asia-Pacific delivered a standout performance, with sales rising 85.1% year-on-year in constant currencies during the fourth quarter.
Other regions also posted strong growth:
- Americas: +21.3%
- EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa): +27.5%
For UK readers, this means European demand, including the UK market, remains solid, particularly in premium running shoes and performance apparel.
One has steadily taken market share from established rivals such as Nike and Adidas by focusing on performance innovation and maintaining premium pricing.
What did company leaders say about future growth?
Co-founder and executive chair David Allemann said: “We are witnessing a fundamental societal shift, as people globally replace traditional markers of status with a commitment to health, longevity, and performance.”
Chief Executive Martin Hoffmann added: “The strength of our premium strategy allows us to exceed our high aspirations while providing the flexibility to reinvest in the high-return areas that we expect will fuel our growth for years to come.”
The company has consistently positioned itself as a premium performance brand. In the previous quarter, it even refused to offer discount promotions during peak shopping season, a rare move in today’s competitive retail landscape.
Are risks increasing for premium sports brands?
Some analysts believe so. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik recently warned that rising competition and tougher pricing conditions could limit further price-led growth.
In a note to clients, he said: “In a tougher pricing environment, and with competitive intensity rising, premium positioning alone may not be enough to sustain price-led growth without risking demand and/or higher promotional activity.”
For UK consumers, this could mean more promotional activity across the sector in 2026 if demand slows.
How does this affect UK investors and shoppers?
Although On is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, it remains a significant European growth story. UK investors with global exposure through ISAs, SIPPs, or international funds may feel the impact of the share drop.
For shoppers, the bigger question is whether premium trainers priced above £140–£180 can maintain demand if household budgets tighten.
The UK sportswear market remains competitive, with brands fighting for market share amid cost-of-living pressures.
