Crude Oil Slips Further as Bearish Signals Strengthen, Analysts Recommend ‘Sell on Rise’ Strategy
Crude oil is back in the spotlight, but for all the wrong reasons. Futures prices are sliding once again, with the commodity locked in a narrow trading range.
Market jitters are growing over weakening global demand and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, pushing analysts to sound the alarm: this might just be the time to sell on any price uptick.
The MCX August crude oil futures hovered around Rs 5,647 per barrel, mirroring the flat international cues. Over in the global markets, WTI crude nudged down to $65.22, while Brent settled slightly lower at $68.52.
According to Naveen Mathur, Director, Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, the trend is now hard to ignore.
“Crude oil prices are under pressure, and have extended losses for a third straight session amid escalating US-EU trade tensions and a looming tariff deadline on August 1.”
His view? WTI’s slide toward the $66 mark signals growing expectations of a more supplied market ahead, with further downside likely.
“Although the EU’s latest sanctions targeting Russian oil products could disrupt diesel exports from India, the overall market reaction has been muted due to continued Russian flows via intermediaries.”
Still, not all indicators point down. Easing inflation and improving US consumer sentiment could give energy demand a lift – if the Fed steps in with a rate cut.
“Weak housing data and high mortgage rates point to slowing growth, but easing inflation and improving consumer sentiment could prompt the Fed to cut rates, supportive for energy demand.”
Despite the bearish weight, crude prices remain stubbornly wedged within the $65–$69 range. Analysts point out that falling US oil rig counts and China’s aggressive crude stockpiling are acting as buffers.
Even so, Mathur maintains a cautious stance: any gains are likely to be short-lived.
From a technical standpoint, MCX Crude Oil (August contract) remains firmly below its 21-day moving average of Rs 5,725, a bearish sign in itself.
Mathur explained the setup further, saying: “Technical indicators like MACD and RSI are showing a negative bias and the price is likely to remain in a broader range of Rs 5,500–Rs 5,800.”
Key support lies at Rs 5,530. If that breaks, a further dip toward Rs 5,391 and Rs 5,285 may be in the cards. The near-term strategy? Sell into strength.
Short-term traders are being advised to short positions around Rs 5,700, with a stop loss at Rs 5,800 and a target of Rs 5,500.
Internationally, WTI Crude Oil faces a tough battle just to hold the line at $65. A slip below $64.50 could see the commodity spiralling toward $62.80, possibly $61.70. Any relief rallies are likely to face resistance at $66.30 and $67.90.
Bottom line? Unless prices manage to reclaim key resistance levels, the outlook stays grim.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading commodities carries risk.
