Brits are being advised to brace themselves for yet another burst of harsh winter rainfall, with new cast maps pointing towards an Arctic blast able to jilting up to 17 cm of snow across the corridor of the UK.
As December begins, a blend of snow, sleet, rain and freezing temperatures looks set to dominate much of the country.
Fresh GFS modelling shows a cold front sweeping in from the Atlantic during the early hours of 3 December, originally hitting Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Northern Scotland appears most at threat of heavy snowfall, while Northern Ireland is anticipated to take the mass of torrential cloudbursts.
By noon, the band of snow is ready to push southwards, drifting towards the Scotland–England border, with flurries falling at roughly 1 cm per hour.
The far north-east of England could also see some wintry showers by the autumn as the cold air lodges in.
An alternate rainfall system is anticipated to arrive beforehand on 4 December, again from the Atlantic, this time targeting Wales and central England.
North Wales could witness a short but violent spell of snow, while girding areas remain under the threat of heavy rain and breezy winds.
Snow depth protrusions indicate that the Cairngorms National Park could accumulate as much as 17 cm following the reverse-to-reverse downtime systems.
Lighter coverings of around 1 cm could settle across corridors of Northern Ireland, North Wales, and southern Scotland, adding to the growing concerns about icy roads and travel disruption.
Met Office Outlook
The Met Office’s long-range forecast for 28 November to 8 December highlights a period of unsettled weather, with wintry conditions most likely in the north.
Their official outlook states: “Changeable and unsettled conditions are expected across the UK during this period.
Low-pressure systems will tend to dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain for much of the UK, though there will likely be some brief settled interludes.
Some heavy rain or showers are expected, most often in the west, although with a risk that some of this could spread to other areas at times. Snow will probably be confined to high ground in the north.
Periods of strong wind are possible, especially around coasts and if any deep areas of low pressure form in the vicinity of the UK.
Some short-lived spells of drier weather are possible, particularly in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.”
BBC Weather Outlook: Cold but Mostly Dry Start to December
BBC Weather’s take on 1–7 December suggests that high pressure may help keep things drier than usual, although cold nights, frost and patchy fog remain on the cards: “During the first week of December, the trend towards high-pressure dominance should continue, so there should be drier conditions for most of the UK.
The high pressure is most likely to be positioned in such a way that it will be accompanied by a relatively mild air mass, meaning that daytime temperatures should be widely near or a little above the December average.
Nevertheless, occasionally clear and rather calm conditions overnight should mean risks of frost and perhaps fog patches.
Although most regions should be drier than normal, a couple of Atlantic frontal systems should nudge towards the UK, bringing occasional rain chances, mostly to northern and western regions, and probably most especially for Scotland, where some wintry precipitation could be possible over high ground.
Elsewhere, a weakening front or two could bring a little rain farther southwards and eastwards, so it’s unlikely to be completely dry.
The risk to the forecast is that high pressure will position itself differently, more strongly over Scandinavia, for example, which would mean chances of colder flows developing.”
What does this mean for Everyday Brits?
Formally speaking, the UK is heading into a spell of unsettled downtime rainfall, with a blend of snow showers, rain bands and passing Atlantic fronts. Advanced ground in Scotland faces the strongest chance of disruptive snowfall.
Casually speaking, it’s time to dig out the downtime fleeces again; December looks like it wants to make an entrance.
While southern regions may stay substantially damp rather than snowy, the north could see proper snowfall, icy mornings and the familiar chaos that frequently comes with a UK cold snap.
Trip conditions could get tricky, especially on advanced routes, so motorists may want to keep an eye on original rainfall warnings over the coming week.
