National Living Wage Could Rise to £12.71 by 2026, Says Low Pay Commission
Workers across the UK on the National Living Wage (NLW) may be in line for a pay boost, with new projections suggesting an increase to £12.71 an hour by April 2026.
The Low Pay Commission (LPC) has published its latest estimates, following the Government’s remit for setting new National Minimum Wage (NMW) and NLW rates. This move supports a wider Government goal to improve living standards for working people.
“The Government is committed to raising the living standards of working people, and this is the key focus of the Government’s Growth Mission.”
The core aim is to ensure the NLW doesn’t slip below two-thirds of median earnings in the UK, a recognised benchmark for addressing low pay. But this isn’t a simple calculation.
The LPC has been instructed to consider multiple factors, including cost of living, inflation, labour market shifts, and wider economic pressures.
“The remit requires consideration of economic conditions and balancing a multitude of factors to make recommendations that ‘deliver for workers and businesses alike’.”
A Slightly Bigger Jump Than Expected
The central estimate now points to an hourly rate of £12.71, marking a 4.1% rise. The projected range falls between £12.55 and £12.86. These figures have ticked upwards since May, when the LPC had suggested a central rate of £12.65.
This change comes as wage growth has outpaced expectations so far this year. That trend has also lifted wage growth forecasts for 2025 and beyond.
In short, if wages keep rising faster than predicted, the final NLW figure could go even higher.
The current assumptions:
- Wage growth is at 5.1% as of May 2025
- Expected to ease to 3.9% by the end of 2025
- Then drop further to 3% in late 2026
Final Decision Coming in October
It’s worth noting that these are indicative estimates, not set-in-stone figures. The LPC is required to consider real-world conditions before making formal recommendations.
The Commission plans to present its final advice to the Government by the end of October 2025, ahead of the new rates taking effect in April 2026.
So for now, while nothing is confirmed, the outlook is clear: the UK National Living Wage is on course for a steady climb—one that could offer a real boost to many lower-paid workers.
